Perry On, My Wayward Son [Politics]

Ah, Iowa. Land of butter sculptures, land of corn. Land of salt-of-the-earth types who for absolutely no good reason that we can see have the privilege of initially anointing who will run against a bunch of other people in other states to win the chance to run against some other guy for the leadership of the alleged free world.

Tuesday night, those salts of the earth gave their verdict on the current field of Republican contenders. Mitt Romney was crowned Most Likely to Win Even Though We Had To Hold Our Nose While Caucusing. Rick Santorum received Most Likely To Be BFFs With Jesus, and Ron Paul won the hearts of enough veterans, younger voters, and Anybody But Romney voters to take home a respectable third place. Meanwhile, that left precious little room for our Dear Governor. Rick Perry finished not fourth but fifth, sandwiched uncomfortably between Newt Gingrich and Michele "God told me to marry you" Bachmann.

Perry had previously told Fox News that he refused to worry about such things as placing or showing. But in the late hours of the night, as it became apparent that Perry's numbers had plateaued at 10%, the candidate announced that he would not be heading straight to South Carolina as previously planned. Instead, he would be doing a sad boogie back to Texas, where he planned to reassess his campaign.

For most media outlets, this translated to Perry suspending his campaign, using suspension in the Herman Cain sense of the word. But after a surprisingly brief period of "prayer and reflection," the Perry campaign announced in a cheery tweet Wednesday morning that its heart and its candidate would go on (and comedians around the land silently rejoiced).

But just because you can do something, does that mean you should? Herewith, we list several reasons why Perry probably should end what may be the most spectacular flame-out in recent history--and a few reasons why he's not going to.

Why he should leave:
The competition is too tough. Consider, for a moment, the fact that Rick Perry lost second place to Rick Santorum.

Perry, the candidate who kicked off his campaign with a seven-hour prayer-and-fasting-palooza that managed to ring all the traditional conservative changes, from supporting Israel and the troops to ending welfare and abortion, should have had a lock on the social conservative vote. Oops. After that, evangelical Iowans found Rick Santorum worth a second look, forcing Perry to pivot away from Romney, his initial focus. But even with the earmarks thing and the "now I really hate abortion" thing, Perry still lost the Jesus 'n Israel vote to a man whose name will forever be associated with the frothy byproduct of an act to which no conservative in his or her right mind will ever cop to even thinking about. Ouch.

And of course, there's Mitt Romney. Before Santorum (ahem) surged (double-ahem), Perry attempted to go mano a mano with the Republican version of John Kerry, with awkward results. Every time the two tangled, Romney came off as the supercilious smart kid with the rich daddy who knew he was better than you--but Perry came off as the second-string jock looking to compensate by picking a fight. Nobody really likes that guy. Perry's efforts to make it a two-person race have so far been easily brushed off.

Newt Gingrich? Sure, Perry and Gingrich have frighteningly similar views on immigration and other issues. Doesn't matter. Newt Gingrich's condescending stare is like kryptonite. Ron Paul's supporters and Perry's supporters are in separate universes, so there's no way for him to peel off votes there. Same with Jon Huntsman (remember him?). That leaves Michelle Bachmann supporters, who were free agents as of Wednesday afternoon, but the Conserva-Crazy vote is slimmer than you might think.

Then there's money. Of all the campaigns, the Perry campaign made the biggest television and radio media buys in Iowa, according to executives there. Still didn't work. Perry ended up spending about $364 per vote. Santorum spent only 73 cents per vote. Ouch, again.

Also money-related: Republicans hungry for an Obama defeat were sitting on their wallets, waiting to see which way the Iowa wind might blow. They're not going to support Ron Paul, and they probably won't bet on Santorum--but they sure as little green apples aren't going to put their taxable income on the guy who finished in fifth place.

Another reason he should leave? At this point, the Republican establishment appears to feel as warmly toward Rick Perry as Dwight Eisenhower felt toward Richard Nixon, and perhaps for similar reasons. Bill Kristol, once a believer in a Perry nomination, now appears to believe Perry should leave for the sake of his "dignity." And former Republican nominee and perpetual Grumpy Old Man John McCain today endorsed Mitt Romney. What former nominee does Perry have on his side? Steve Forbes. How many people even know who Steve Forbes is?

Why he's staying in (bless his heart):
Because Iowa isn't America. Notwithstanding the fact that there's at least one compelling argument why Iowa is in fact a near-perfect microcosm of the rest of the country, the fact remains that a candidate doesn't have to win Iowa to win the nomination. As Politifact notes, Ronald Reagan, Michael Dukakis, and George H.W. Bush all lost in Iowa and still won their party's nod. Hell, Bill Clinton lost both Iowa and New Hampshire, and look how that turned out.

Also, Iowa isn't the only haven for social conservatives. Perry is skipping the New Hampshire primary, as well he should, and heading down to South Carolina. That's where he announced his campaign post-Response, and where the Bible Belt is buckled nice and tight. The conventional wisdom is that Republican voters down there are even less sold on that Yankee Mitt Romney and his not-quite-Christian-enough beliefs, thus appearing to leave a little wiggle room for Perry to work his seductive wiles on South Carolinians. But as much as social conservatives may want a by-the-Bible presidential candidate, they want to get rid of Barack Obama just a little bit more. Perry will have to convince them that not only does he know all their favorite Scriptures and hymns, but that he can also beat the current President like a rented mule. That will be a tough sell.

Luckily for him, he didn't quite blow all his campaign cash in Iowa--he's still got quite a bit left over for media buys and other outreach. He also has good friends with deep pockets like Blackstone Limited I, the company that poured thousands of dollars into ads in Iowa and then mysteriously disappeared. Perry will need that kind of help. He'll also need to dump Nelson Warfield, the GOP operative who conceived that comedy gem of an ad, "Strong. While he's at it, he should probably also invest some of that cash in new handlers and perhaps some new debate prep technology. Surely Dubya can hook him up, so to speak. Kidding!

The final reason Perry's staying in the race? Because he can, and because at the end of the day, there is one salient fact to know about Rick Perry: He hates, pure-D hates, to lose. In 27 years, he's never lost a race. Sure, that shutout record required party switching, skillful and not-so-skillful pandering, and the occasional out and out shameless lie, but it's a testament to his political survival skills and his capacity for obsession.

So for now we still have Rick Perry to kick around. Vaya con dios, Governor, and may God have mercy on us all.