Of Mice and Iowa... [Politics]

Robert Burns' famous (and famously misquoted) line from his 1785 poem To A Mouse might be the best summation for the Republican party following last night's Iowa GOP Caucus:

"The best laid schemes of mice and men
Go often askew,
And leave us nothing but grief and pain,
For promised joy!"

That's how Mitt Romney and the Republican establishment must be feeling today after 75% of Iowa Caucus voters picked "anyone but Mitt." Despite months of media attention devoted to Romney's "inevitability" and big money ad buys targeting any other candidate who temporarily gained frontrunner status, Romney managed to win with just 25% of the vote in Iowa while Rick Santorum *ahem* surged from behind on the strength of disaffected religious conservatives making up their minds about the former Pennsylvania Senator only in the final few days before the vote.

The Republican Establishment, backed by big money from Wall Street and Karl Rove's billionaire funded PAC American Crossroads (among others), has desperately tried to wrap up the nominating process as quickly as possible with the least amount of damage to their anointed candidate heading into the general election. But that's not going to happen now that the Republican party's base has effectively triangulated into its requisite parts: The top 1% who hate taxes and anything that stands in the way of strip-mining the American economy; Big Government Evangelical Christians who hate Gay people, love war against Muslims, and want every zygote protected from harm (even if it kills the mother); and small government Libertarians who have all benefited extensively from American society but no longer want to pay for it.

Thus we have a three-way race for the Republican primary, with each faction divided almost equally between Romney, Santorum, and Paul respectively. Romney spent the most money of the three leading three candidates in Iowa and managed to beat the opponent who spent the least money of the three by only eight votes. With Bachmann now out of the race and Perry's campaign on life support despite outspending all other candidates, their combined 15% returns in Iowa are most likely to benefit Santorum or perhaps even Paul rather than Romney since their base is mainly evangelicals. Add that polling nightmare to the GOP decision this year to apportion delegates in many states based on primary vote percentages rather than winner take all, and the odds of a bitter floor fight in Tampa only grow stronger.

That's not good news for the Republican Establishment that will likely have to spend a great deal of its campaign budget on the primaries rather than the general election. And with the convention taking place in early September, that only gives the GOP two months to focus on the general elections if the race is still unsettled at the end of the summer. Meanwhile, Obama will be campaigning heavily throughout those months promoting a broad general election message of defending the middle class and creating jobs while his opponents continue to sling mud and undermine one another over conservative red meat issues like abortion, war, immigration, and gay marriage - none of which play well among the moderate and independent voters the GOP needs to win. Meanwhile, virtually every down-ticket race from high-profile Senate contests to non-competitive house seats will be overshadowed by the messaging from both sides, with Republican candidates forced to take positions on competing small-bore messages by the triumvirate at the top of the ticket while Democrats get to rally behind a unified message delivered by the President.

Had Romney won last night with 25% of the vote but placed well ahead of the second place finisher, the GOP decision makers would be breathing easier this morning. Or if Romney had lost convincingly to Santorum or Paul, then his campaign could have dismissed the outcome as merely a referendum on Iowa's religious conservative control of the process that doesn't mean much considering it has picked the losing candidate three of the last five times. But a win for Romney in a very close race between three challengers who each represent a strong faction within a divided party was the worst case scenario for the GOP and means the contest only gets rougher and more unsettled heading into New Hampshire and South Carolina. New Gingrich has also decided to stay in the race if only to block for Santorum against Romney and use his well-practiced attack politics in a scorched-earth campaign against the Republican Establishment that so clearly dismissed and attacked him over the last month. The immensely vain Gingrich is dangerous for the GOP as a frontrunner, but he is deadly as a wounded candidate with a score to settle.

The voting for the 2012 presidential election is officially underway, with the Iowa caucuses only creating more drama and suspense rather than settling anything for the Republican party. There is one conclusion that can be drawn from last night's returns: The only real winner of the Iowa Republican Caucus was Barack Obama.