Political Predictions for 2012 [Opinion]

As 2011 comes to a close, we reflect upon the extraordinary changes in the American political system this past year and the often confusing and sometimes downright looney behavior of our nation's "leaders." We were treated this past year to one of the most intransigent Congressional sessions in recent U.S. history, with a Republican majority in the house willing to destroy the world economy by failing to raise the debt ceiling unless we promised to just severely harm our national economy instead.

Barack Obama became the first sitting president in history who was forced to release his "long form" birth certificate just to prove that a black man really is an American, and the race for the 2012 Republican nomination delivered multiple temporary front-runners including a super-rich carnival barker with bad hair and a misogynistic pizza magnate who loved quoting Pokemon movies and drew his tax policy inspiration from video games. We won't even mention the insanity that is Michelle Bachmann or the culture-warrior urban dictionary joke known as Rick Santorum... and encourage you NOT to Google-search his name if you value your innocence.

Three of the world's most dangerous terrorists were killed within two months of one another, including world enemy number one Osama Bin Laden—with a Democratic president in office no less. Dictators in the Middle East toppled one after another as social media fueled democratic uprisings across the region. And the poor and middle-class citizens of America, as well as across the globe, finally had enough of the greed and corruption by the moneyed elite that had driven them to the edge of extinction. They Occupied public parks by the thousands until the corporate media was forced to dismiss them publicly rather than continue to ignore them completely. Meanwhile, city mayors secretly conspired to send those citizens home (or any other place that hadn't already been foreclosed upon) by prodding them with tear gas, rubber bullets, and mass arrest. Apparently democracy is only wonderful if we don't actually use it.

And all of that occurred in a non-election year! So what does 2012 offer us, you ask? Well, the political prognostication machine has been working through the holidays, and like a fat red elf with diabetes, it has delivered its gifts for 2012 all wrapped up in Austinist cheer while we slept off the turkeys, hams, and candies we consumed in excess this year. So here is what to expect in the political world for 2012.... don't say you weren't warned:

Republican Nomination
Expect the many (oh, so many) debates among the GOP challengers to continue to draw huge ratings as awed Americans watch otherwise mostly-sane human beings engage in increasingly bizarre behavior in an attempt to demonstrate which one is the most far-right extremist with visions of a brand new war in the Middle East (which would also not be paid for). No cultural subgroup will be spared marginalization or hatred as they are each in turn blamed for high unemployment and the collapse of moral civilization. If you or someone you know is Gay, Latino, Black, Asian; or a teacher, artist, union-member, firefighter, public employee, journalist, minimum wage earner, Medicare recipient, Occupy supporter, poor, or an immigrant (Canadians excepted), then the GOP will have a message for you: Your kind is a threat to freedom for all. Oh... and Romney wins the nomination after a bitter floor fight in Tampa.

Economy
There will be better news in 2012, which is not saying much compared to the last three years following the worst economic disaster since the Great Depression. Unemployment will experience the same ups and downs of 2011, with some good numbers for the months that end in "y" and mediocre to poor numbers for the rest. By election time, the "official" unemployment rate will hover just above the magic 8% that pundits say is the bar for Obama's reelection, making the presidential race closer than it otherwise would be.

Expect manufacturing to increase slightly as China's currency manipulation gets more international scrutiny and the demand and wage pressures in China coupled with higher fuel prices drive manufacturing back onshore. But overall wages are likely to stay flat or even decrease as millions of unemployed Americans begin returning to the workforce by accepting anything that puts bread on the table. The European Union will get its house in order by finally kicking two of its deadbeat "guests" off the family couch and into the street. That will help the U.S. and world economy overall, but things really don't look good for Greece or Spain. The overall prediction for the economy, however, is heavily tied to what happens in Iran...

Iran
2012 is the year Americans finally learn the difference between an Arab and a Persian, and it's a lesson that won't come cheap. Iran is already threatening the flow of oil through the tightly controlled Straits of Hormuz if America's trading partners go along with the U.S. and the E.U. plans to embargo Iran's oil in retaliation for its quest for a nuclear bomb. Tensions will continue to rise over the next few months, along with oil prices (again). Fortunately, Iran's leaders recognize their power lies ultimately in the Revolutionary Guard and the Ministry of Intelligence and Security (MOIS) that Americans will learn a lot more about in the coming months. The Revolutionary Guard and MOIS have been using their influence in Iran's parliament to secure vast holdings in the country's oil fields, banking, manufacturing, and other economic interests, and the military and intelligence services will not take kindly to seeing those interests threatened by narcissistic politicians with grandiose visions of power. Iran is already at odds with other powers in the region over its threatened closing of the Straits and nothing solves problems as quickly as a moneyed class whose wealth is actually threatened. The world will be at the brink of war by summer, but that war will be averted at the last minute by diplomacy brokered by China and Russia. And the Republican nominee will accuse Obama of being weak on foreign policy for refusing to send thousands of poor and middle class Americans to die in the Middle East in another decade-long (unpaid for) war.

Bankers, BP, and Lobbyists
Finally, after years of investigations and impotent enforcement of our nation's laws, we may see a few folks hauled before Grand Juries and Congress to face the music for their crimes leading to the financial collapse, the oil spill, and insider trading. It's unlikely any of them will actually end up in jail, unfortunately, because our nation has three distinct judicial systems: One for the 99%, one for the top 1%, and one for Corporations (only the first one involves actual punishment for crimes committed, the other two get "fines"). The hearings and proceedings will make for entertaining television for the politically educated who actually care about such things, and it will be a nice political gambit for the parties trying to convince voters that they are "tough" on crime, but in the end most of those charged will end up with golden parachute retirements or new careers as lobbyists in Washington.

2012 Elections
The most interesting thing about the 2012 elections won't be who the Republicans nominate in 2012, which is all but certain at this point. It will be who the right-wing third-party candidate is. The split personality of the Republican Party will become glaring and prominent by summer, with the establishment money clearly behind Mitt Romney and the political base of the party raising a new Tea-Party standard bearer with promises to defeat the Anti-Christ (Obama) at the polls and save America from the Gay. While there are always third (and fourth and fifth) party candidates who compete for president, only a few have the honors of actually garnering significant enough support to affect a national election (Ross Perot and Ralph Nader come to mind), and that will have dire consequences not only for the Republican chances to regain the White House, but also for the down-ticket candidates the GOP needs to hold the House and take the Senate. Romney will lose the election, and could potentially even place third behind Obama and whoever the third party candidate becomes (it won't be Palin or Bachmann, but Huckabee is a real possibility).

Vice-Presidential Excitement
With the party nominees already certain, the real political news will be the vice presidential candidates for both sides. Much speculation about Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden switching jobs has been floated since just after the 2008 election, and the current odds favor that switch. Despite Clinton's recent pronouncement that she will leave politics after 2012, that is likely just a subterfuge to keep the hounds at bay until mid-August when the switch will be announced, stealing media coverage from the Republicans in the three-week news cycle leading up to the GOP convention and feeding the right-wing their favorite red herring dish served tough and blond to both knock the Republicans off message and drive female independent voters toward the Democratic ticket. The move also sets Clinton up nicely for a 2016 bid for the White House.

The Republican VP nominee will be one of two options. Romney is not well liked by the Tea Party wing of the GOP, so the speculation will be a firebrand candidate to shore up his base and try to stave off a third-party challenger. But the Republican establishment has still not recovered from McCain's move in that direction and the prospect of another uncontrollable extremist without real governing experience bringing down the ticket will likely prevent such a choice. The other option is a respected conservative governor from a key battleground state such as Bob McDonnell from Virginia, who has already mentioned that he wants the job. Nikki Haley of South Carolina is an option as well, and her early endorsement for Romney in the primaries hints at her own job application. But Haley's approval ratings are plummeting. Plus, South Carolina is already a safe bet for the GOP and Virginia's 13 electoral votes the Democrats won in 2008 are more valuable than the 9 that South Carolina will likely deliver anyway. Chris Christie is another solid choice for the 14 electoral votes in New Jersey that went to Obama in 2008, but Christie has his own baggage and his defense of Muslims will hurt him on the right. McDonnell is the early favorite and likely choice nine months out.

Who Wins in 2012?
Romney will likely choose another rich white male for his running mate, and Clinton will run with Obama. The opposing tickets will serve as glaring visual rhetorical devices for whom the parties toll: Two super wealthy white guys on the right and a black man and woman on the left. It will be a brutal, ugly, mud-slinging affair with billions of unregulated dollars from SuperPACs dominating every media outlet in America. Don't be surprised to find your household pets burying their heads to hide from the constant cacophonous noise machine we call elections these days. On the bright side, corporations will at least finally be investing some of their excess trillions in cash in America to influence the vote, and every unemployed worker in the nation will be schlepping clipboards for both sides for a few dollars a day. At least that's one way to get the economy rolling again.

Obama will win re-election by a landslide, capturing all but the deepest red states in the South. Democrats, emboldened by the success of Scott Walker's recall (yes, that will happen), a resurgent and powerful Occupy movement whose actions will dominate coverage of both conventions, and a powerful speaker and campaigner in Obama, will retake the House with Nancy Pelosi at the helm.

The Senate is a toss-up at this point, with a 50% chance the Democrats will only lose three net seats and hold on with a 50-50 tie (broken only by the Vice President's vote). There are 33 seats in the Senate up for grabs this election cycle, and the Democrats have to defend 23 of those. The odds are not in their favor, and in any other election year their defeat would be certain. But 2012 is going to be an election year unlike any our country has witnessed, and we'll wake up in 2013 with the worst political hangover and walk-of-shame our nation has ever endured... and with Obama returned to the White House, and Republicans in the Senate determined once again to do nothing that might support him.

Enjoy your New Year's celebrations and hold on to your hats in 2012. It's going to be a bumpy ride.