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State of the GOP Guv Race [Politics]
About a year ago, polling and conventional wisdom suggested that then-unpopular Governor Rick Perry, despite having served longer than any Governor in Texas' history, was finally headed for a defeat in his party's primary, this time at the hands of longtime United States Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison. But Perry, being the wily political veteran he is, employed the effective one-two punch of painting Sen. Hutchison with the "Washington establishment candidate" brush and advocating Texas' secession from the union during last year's Tea Party rallies, which resonated with a growing segment of far-right Republican voters -- the exact ones who show up to vote in the primary -- and ultimately swung polling heavily in his favor. A generally inept and complacent campaign paired with a couple of uninspired debate performances from Hutchison made it look like Perry and his unparalleled head of hair would coast (possibly sans runoff) towards his party's nomination for Governor.
Within the last month or two, however, Debra Medina came along and spoiled the coronation. Medina, a largely unknown, Ron Paul-type Libertarian running in the Republican primary, capitalized on the growing strength of the Tea Party movement and the smaller government sentiment prevalent amongst Republicans, Libertarians, and certain Independents alike. She gained some serious traction in the two GOP debates, appearing as a thoughtful and distinct alternative to the two career politicians with whom she shared the stage.
Several recent polls showed her creeping her way into runoff territory, right on the heels of the fading US Senator from La Marque. That is, until outspoken Fox News talking head Glenn Beck asked Medina about her relationship to the 9/11 Truth movement on his show February 11. Medina, by not offering an outright condemnation of the group, validated -- in some people's minds -- that movement's accusations that the federal government played a role in the attack on the World Trade Center, thus setting off a firestorm of negative publicity and sending Medina's campaign into damage control mode.
Now a week away from Election Day, it's tough to tell who, if anyone, will be paired against our politically-resilient Governor in an April runoff. Can Medina's growing grassroots support propel her past Sen. Hutchison? Can Perry hold off both challengers and get the majority of his party's vote despite his perennially high negatives? What does the big turnout thus far in Early Voting mean for this race? For now, it's still up in the air.
According to the most recent polling, Perry is lurking a shade under 50%, and if he can just break that barrier, he'll be facing off with (in all likelihood) Houston ex-mayor Bill White in the general election. While White is clearly the most formidable candidate the Dems have fielded in years, Perry would certainly have history on his side. The last time a Democrat got elected to the office of Governor was the iconic Ann Richards in 1990, who is arguably the only prominent Texan political figure with a head of hair to rival Governor Perry's. Yet another strike against Mayor White and his long-dormant hair follicles.
