Texas Hoops: What to Watch For as Big 12 Play Begins

Having seen their team successfully traverse one of the most difficult non-conference schedules in the nation to close out 2008, Texas fans have much reason to be optimistic as the conference season approaches. But a number of slips and narrow victories along the way mandate that we regard this team with cautious optimism. For every impressive victory (UCLA, Villanova), there have been high profile losses (Notre Dame, Michigan State) and uncomfortable margins over inferior competition (Texas State, Texas Southern).

But as conference play begins, Texas remains on a collision course with their familiar foes from across the Red River for Big 12 superiority, as Blake Griffin has led Oklahoma to a 12-1 record and No. 4 ranking, although Baylor could be poised to play spoiler as Texas and OU look to extend their run of dominance over the rest of the Big 12. In the meantime, here are a few things to watch throughout the conference season.

Texas has not established a go-to scorer other than AJ Abrams
While Damion James is the statistical No. 2 scorer, in late-game situations the Longhorns strictly go as Abrams goes. This has largely been acceptable so far, as Abrams has produced several clutch plays already this season. But as was the case in the Longhorns' late collapse against Michigan State, if Abrams is well-defended or simply off his game, no other Longhorn has established himself as a secondary go-to scorer. As we wrote in our season preview, this edition of Texas basketball is built around balance, but as game margins get tighter, Texas needs to establish a more definite pecking order behind Abrams in late-game situations.

How will Blake Griffin's individual success correlate to Oklahoma's team success?
As the torch has been passed from Kevin Durant to Michael Beasley and now to Blake Griffin as the premier player in the Big 12, team success has not always followed individual success. Both Durant and Beasley averaged double-doubles and were at the top of much national Player of the Year conversation, but both also saw their teams eliminated in the second round of the NCAA Tournament. The tournament's single-elimination format lends dubious odds to teams that tie their fate so strongly to a single player. In the past three seasons, balance has outlasted several superstars to claim college basketball's championship (Florida in 2006, Florida in 2007, and Kansas last year). Those teams each featured several high draft picks but remained very statistically balanced. Watch to see how Griffin's impressive individual stats correlate to team success throughout the season and into the tournament.

Baylor could be really good
I daresay few hate to give any credit to the Bears more than yours truly, but in terms of returning talent, Baylor deserves to be mentioned with Texas and OU as the class of the Big 12. After losing only the ever-unimpressive Aaron Bruce from the top of their rotation, Baylor could become the Team Nobody Wants to Play come March and April. The Bears' top three scorers (Curtis Jerrells, LaceDarius Dunn, Henry Dugat) are each liable to light it up on any given night, which the Longhorns hopefully learned after their scare in Waco a year ago. Consistency has been the Bears' undoing throughout Coach Scott Drew's rebuilding effort, but as experience continues to mount, the Bears could be very dangerous late in the season.

The enigmatic enigmas
That is, will any team in the Big 12's middle tier establish itself as a major player on the conference and national stage? Of the four possibilities (Texas A&M, Oklahoma State, Missouri and Kansas), only Kansas has suffered a "bad" loss to date, but receives a pass here both because of their status as defending champs and their relative youth. The Jayhawks could and should improve dramatically as the season progresses, and still have two opportunities to prove themselves before conference play begins (Jan. 3 v. No. 18 Tennessee and Jan. 10 v. No. 15 Michigan State).

Among the others, Texas A&M has amassed an 11-1 record, collecting wins against Arizona and LSU in the process, and junior Donald Sloan has improved from year ago in filling the point guard position vacated by Acie Law in 2007. Similarly, neither Mizzou nor Oklahoma St. have suffered a bad loss, but neither has collected a marquee victory. Both will have to wait to test their mettle against quality Big 12 programs, as the remainder of their non-conference schedules is relatively weak.

Briefly

Sophomore Jai Lucas of the Florida Gators has announced that he will transfer to Texas. Lucas will have to sit out this season, per NCAA regulations regarding transfers.